Is everyone getting on the Second Life bandwagon?
Clay Shirky has written a contrarian piece ("a story too good to check"), suggesting that Second Life is a "much-hyped" phenomenon that will go the way of Pointcast and LambdaMOO into the dustbin of Internet history.
Let me add to the Second Life hype meter.
- I believe that Second Life was the most important development in educational technology during 2006.
- Moreover, I predict that by 2010 3D Virtual Worlds will become the primary user interface for learning environments, including learning management systems.
Shirky has a point but misses the Point.
Acccording to Shirky, "There's nothing wrong with a service that appeals to tens of thousands of people, but in a billion-person internet, that population is also a rounding error. If most of the people who try Second Life bail (and they do), we should adopt a considerably more skeptical attitude about proclamations that the oft-delayed Virtual Worlds revolution has now arrived."
Second Life, the particular implementation of 3D virtual worlds, might be a rounding error but the technology is here to stay and will become mainstream in education and in business far sooner than people realize.
More on point is Irving Wladawsky-Berger, who is leading the Second Life charge at IBM. In "Experimenting with Virtual Worlds in the Real Marketplace", Wladawsky-Berger writes:
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"There are tens of millions of people around the world involved in collaborative, Web 2.0 kinds of applications, including quite a large number participating in visually oriented, massively multiplayer online games like World of Warcraft
and role-playing virtual world environments like Second Life.
Something must be going on that is attracting all those people, and it
is only through experimentation that we will figure out how to capture
the essence of that attraction so we can transfer it to business and
societal applications. We went through a very similar experience
in the early and mid 1990s trying to understand the appeal of the
Internet and nascent World Wide Web so we could develop what eventually
became e-business. We are now trying to understand what v-business is all about."
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Wladowsky-Berger, head of technical strategy and innovation at IBM, recently announced that virtual reality and other rich interfaces is of strategic interest to IBM and will draw increasing investments in the coming years.
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